Russia's gasoline crisis: As Ukraine strikes refineries, exchange data reveal severe disruptions
Russia faces a gasoline crisis that developed in a month, triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. Meduza, analyzing exchange trading data, found that by early July all major refineries had been hit, and roughly 40% of capacity may be offline.
Russia is grappling with a severe gasoline crisis that emerged within a month, with no clear end in sight. Ukraine's armed forces continue to strike Russian oil infrastructure with drones, primarily targeting refineries. Officials withhold information on the extent of damage, prompting Meduza to analyze exchange trading data as an indirect gauge of the crisis.
According to the Energy Ministry, Russia has 39 commissioned refineries, but only about 35 are operational. Their combined design capacity is approximately 302 million tons of oil per year, but actual processing in 2024 was 266.5 million tons, producing 41.1 million tons of gasoline and 81.6 million tons of diesel. Domestic demand stands at about 36 million tons of gasoline and 51 million tons of diesel, leaving a large export surplus for diesel, which was banned on July 8.
Fuel is sold through vertically integrated companies, direct contracts, and the St. Petersburg exchange (SPIMEX). The mandatory exchange share for gasoline was reduced from 15% to 10%, shrinking supply for independent gas stations, which account for 30–40% of the market.
From January 1 to July 2, 2026, Meduza documented at least 66 attacks on fuel infrastructure, 44 of which targeted refineries. Strikes intensified in March with shutdowns at Saratov and Kinef; April saw hits on Norsi, Tuapse, Syzran, Novokuybyshevsk, and Perm; May brought strikes on Ryazan, Moscow, Volgograd, and Saratov. June was the peak: Moscow refinery hit multiple times, plus Taneco, TAIF-NK, Yaroslavl, Kuybyshev, and Bashneft plants. On July 6, the Omsk refinery—Russia's largest, over 2,000 km from the front line—was struck for the first time. By early July, every major refinery had been hit.
Damage to primary processing units can halt crude intake entirely. Repairs take weeks or months, complicated by sanctions that restrict access to spare parts. Novaya Gazeta Europe estimates that as of mid-June, roughly 40% of Russia's refining capacity was offline. Exchange data indirectly confirm a significant drop in fuel available to the market.
