Russian grain transit leaves Latvia about €30 per tonne, commentary says
A Dienas Bizness commentary calculates that Russian grain transit through Latvia earns the sector €25–30 per tonne, far below the €290 million a year cited by the Transport Ministry. The author concludes that the arguments against a ban do not hold up.
Debate continues in Latvia over whether to ban Russian grain transit by rail to Latvian ports. A commentary in the business daily Dienas Bizness argues that the objections to a ban do not withstand simple arithmetic. The issue matters to farmers too: they will gather for the second time in Jēkabpils on 7 November.
Three arguments against a ban
The author lists three arguments. The first is the EU's exclusive competence over tariffs and transit. Against this, the commentary notes that Estonia this month banned Russian and Belarusian grain transit through national sanctions, and Latvia itself banned imports of Russian grain to its own market in 2024.
The second is the litigation risk of €200–800 million and prior contracts for 300,000 tonnes. By the author's calculation, at 12 trains a day of roughly 3,000 tonnes each through the Krustpils rail hub, that is about ten days of volume. The third is that the grain belongs to companies from the US, Switzerland and Japan; the author recalls that payment has gone to the Russian exporter.
What the sector actually earns
The Transport Ministry estimates that halting transit would cost the sector €290 million a year. According to estimates by Latvian Television's programme De facto, the cargo owner's total cost from the Russian border to the ship is €25–30 per tonne. For 888,000 tonnes that is €22–27 million, and for 1.2 million tonnes just under €36 million.
Liepāja Bulk Terminal acknowledges that almost half of the grain it handles comes from Russia and that 400,000 tonnes of Latvian grain a year does not sustain the terminal financially. The author sees this as dependence on Russian cargo and a security risk.
Russian exports and inspections
The commentary says Russia's grain export capacity has been destroyed by more than 80% by Ukrainian strikes, and that August wheat exports were 1.9 million tonnes, the lowest in 16 years. Latvia's Food and Veterinary Service and customs have taken more than 20 samples since late September to check whether cargoes contain grain stolen in occupied Ukrainian territories, but will not make the results public.
Before the election the government promised a 300% rise in rail infrastructure fees; the regulator LatRailNet set 25%. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs has said a transit ban is not currently possible.
