Lula wins Brazil's presidential runoff and faces a host of challenges in a fourth term
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.7 percent of the vote, days before turning 81. He now faces hurdles in Congress, public finances, security and relations with the United States.
Brazil's leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former union leader, won Sunday's presidential runoff and will return to office for a fourth term. Days before his 81st birthday, he took 51.7 percent of the vote against 48.2 percent for right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. The narrow margin confirms the political divide that has split Brazil for a decade and shows Bolsonarism remains strong, even though its leader, former president Jair Bolsonaro, has been sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup.
Limited support in Congress
As in his current term, Lula will have no majority in Congress. Legislative elections earlier this month strengthened the right: Bolsonaro's Liberal Party is now the largest force, with 121 of 513 deputies and 28 of 81 senators. To pass his proposals, Lula will rely on the "Centrao", a bloc of center-right parties that usually backs whoever holds power in exchange for benefits. Political scientist Mayra Goulart of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro says such talks are getting harder, because lawmakers now decide the fate of a growing share of the federal budget and are therefore more independent from the executive.
Economy and security
Economist Mauro Rochlin of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) says Brazil's central problem is fiscal. The state spends more than it collects, public debt exceeds 80 percent of GDP, and the central bank keeps one of the world's highest interest rates to contain inflation. Rochlin warned the situation could quickly turn into an economic crisis. Adjustment will require unpopular measures and a clash with powerful lobbies in Congress, and may conflict with Lula's flagship welfare programs, which he expanded during the campaign.
Security dominated the campaign. The opposition accuses Lula of being soft on crime, so he will be under pressure to deliver results against criminal groups and militias that control territory in several cities. He said he would back lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes, while the right wants 14.
Relations with the United States
Lula campaigned on protecting Brazilian sovereignty. US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil last year in retaliation for legal proceedings against his ally Jair Bolsonaro, followed by another 25 percent tariff on some products this year. Lula must manage ties with Washington without softening his anti-imperialist tone. Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations professor at FGV, argues ideology matters mainly for symbolic encounters, citing Brazil-Argentina relations, which have changed little despite insults from Argentine leader Javier Milei.
