NATO Air Defence Pledge for Baltics: Promises vs Reality
NATO has not fulfilled its 2023 pledge to maintain rotational air defence deployments in the Baltic states due to a chronic shortage of systems across the alliance, officials and experts say. A new air defence mission format has been approved but faces the same fundamental challenge.
Despite positive announcements about a new air defence mission in the Baltic region, NATO has not fulfilled a three-year-old pledge made in Vilnius to maintain a rotational deployment of air defence systems in the Baltic states, officials and experts say. The delay is largely due to a shortage of air defence capabilities across Europe, with many systems also urgently needed to support Ukraine.
At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, alliance leaders agreed that air defence systems would be deployed to the Baltic states on a rotational basis, meaning the systems would remain available in the region while different allied countries would take turns providing them. A year later, then-Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said preparations were underway: "We are discussing the deployment of specific air defence systems in Lithuania, including Patriot systems. This will happen this year." However, the commitment has not materialised as a permanent arrangement. In 2024, the Netherlands deployed a Patriot system to Lithuania for 10 days, while Italy carried out a short-term deployment in 2025. Similar temporary deployments have taken place in Latvia and Estonia.
Rimantas Sinkevičius, chairman of the Lithuanian parliament’s National Security and Defence Committee, said the situation is more complex than publicly acknowledged. "There is more information available in classified channels, and it is not necessarily unfavourable for Lithuania. There are systems available – from allies, not from Lithuania," he said. Laurynas Kasčiūnas, deputy chairman of the committee, said the current reality does not match expectations for the rotational model. "This is certainly not what we expected from the rotational model," he said.
Experts say the main obstacle is a shortage of air defence systems throughout NATO. "There is an overall shortage of these systems in the alliance. It is a chronic shortage," said Tomas Jermalavičius, head of studies at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn. "There have been figures suggesting that the alliance has only about 5% of the capabilities needed to protect the entire eastern flank." At a recent NATO summit in Ankara, alliance leaders did not revisit the specific rotational deployment pledge but instead approved a broader change: replacing the Baltic air policing mission with an air defence mission.
Lithuania’s current Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said the new approach would give NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe greater flexibility to move capabilities where they are most needed without lengthy political negotiations. "It allows NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe to redeploy and adjust plans, moving capabilities where they are needed most while avoiding political debates that sometimes arise," Kaunas said. Kasčiūnas said, however, that the fundamental challenge remains a lack of available systems. "To arrange something, you need to have something to arrange. The physical shortage of air defence systems is the biggest challenge," he said.
Jermalavičius said the shift from air policing to air defence should currently be viewed mainly as a political signal to allies that the Baltic region is a priority. "It is a signal to allies that this is one of the priority regions and that greater attention should be given when making commitments and allocating resources," he said. The expert also noted differences in how Baltic countries present the mission change. Estonian officials, he said, have focused less on the new mission status and more on changes to fighter pilot engagement rules and operational procedures.
Minister Kaunas acknowledged that Lithuania faces major challenges in strengthening its own air defence. "We are racing against time, trying to speed up processes and acquire radar systems, kinetic capabilities, anti-drone solutions and drone capabilities as quickly as possible," he said. Lithuania has allocated an additional 800 million euros this year to strengthen air defence. However, Kasčiūnas said current plans remain insufficient. "The plan that has been created is very fragmented and only partially addresses the problem. According to our calculations, about 5 billion euros will be needed for air defence capabilities by 2035," he said. The Lithuanian government’s program prioritises protecting military and critical infrastructure, while Kaunas said plans also include improving defences against air attacks on major cities.
