Politics Threaten the Independence of the National Academies of Science

The U.S. National Academies of Sciences (NASEM), founded during the Civil War to advise the government, have become a target of political controversy. The organization, known for producing authoritative reports on scientific and technological issues by drawing top national experts, had previously managed to avoid direct political attacks. However, recent events indicate this is changing.

Conflict Over Climate Recognition

A key dispute involves a NASEM-prepared manual for the Federal Judicial Center on scientific evidence. The fourth edition included a chapter on climate change for the first time, which drew criticism from Republican state attorneys general. They argued that the authors had been involved in climate litigation, making them biased, and that treating human-driven climate change as settled science indicated impartiality. The Judicial Center quickly removed the chapter, but NASEM refused to do so.

Subsequently, 11 Republican House members sent a letter to the director of the Office of Management and Budget, urging an investigation into whether NASEM should be suspended from all federal funding. Another issue arose when NASEM organized an updated climate report at the same time the Department of Energy commissioned a report from fringe contrarians suggesting carbon emissions are likely harmless.

The Fight Over Attribution

At the heart of the matter is climate attribution—the ability to link specific weather events to human-induced climate change. Over recent decades, researchers have developed tools to estimate the probability of an event occurring with and without greenhouse gas emissions. It is now clear that some extreme events would not have occurred without human-caused warming.

These studies allow researchers to tie financial damages from catastrophic weather to individual fossil fuel companies. If such studies are accepted as valid science, judges would be compelled to admit them as evidence in lawsuits against those companies. NASEM formed a committee during the Biden administration to evaluate the scientific standing of attribution studies. Oil companies, concerned about the implications, have hired third parties to request emails of committee members who work at public universities.

The coming battle over this report may permanently damage science-based policy in the U.S. As observers note, when even basic facts become politicized, trying to avoid being a target by focusing solely on science is no longer a winning strategy.