RB Rail chief: Rail Baltica cannot be built on political statements alone

The main risk to Rail Baltica, the new standard-gauge railway line being built across the Baltic states, is currently the timeliness and consistency of political decisions rather than technical readiness or construction capacity. This is argued by the chair of the RB Rail management board in an opinion piece for the magazine Ir. RB Rail is the company coordinating the project among the Baltic countries. In Latvia, the public debate has again raised the question of whether the country can afford the project.

EU support and national commitments

European Union backing has already taken the form of allocated funding of 4.5 billion euros. The author considers the key question to be not whether Latvia can afford the project, but how it will continue construction, meet its obligations and make use of this support. On 16 October, the leaders of four countries stated in a joint letter to EU leadership their commitment to complete the project in the next multiannual budget period and called for predictable European funding. The author notes that public statements casting doubt on financing reach other member states and Brussels.

Estonia's example

In the author's view, Latvia's situation has been shaped by postponed decisions on the implementation timetable, the financing plan and the infrastructure manager, as well as insufficient funding planning. Several scenarios exist that combine EU co-financing, state investment and other instruments, and spread investment over a longer period. Estonia has revised its schedule: the Tallinn–Pärnu link is to be completed by 2032 and the cross-border section by 2034. Investment planned for 2027 was cut from 919 to 541 million euros, and for 2028 from about 1.06 billion to 453 million euros. This plan depends on future EU funding.

Deadlines and cost risks

More than 40% of the first-phase main route is under construction or ready to begin. In Latvia, construction contracts cover over 200 kilometres, but the actual pace of work lags well behind neighbouring countries. Several CEF (Connecting Europe Facility) funding agreements expire in 2028, some in 2029. The author warns that slowing down brings risks of contract revisions, price indexation and extra costs, and delays benefits for freight and passenger transport, business and military mobility. Project estimates indicate that 19–21% of invested funds return to the state budget as tax revenue.