Ryanair CEO: Airfares in Europe Could Rise Up to 20% in 2027

Michael O'Leary, chief executive of Europe's largest budget airline Ryanair, has told Euronews that airfares across Europe could rise by 10%, 15% or even 20% in 2027. The main driver is more expensive jet fuel, as the war involving Iran continues to push up oil prices. He described the expected increase as the biggest in European aviation history over the next 12 months.

Fuel costs and hedging

According to O'Leary, airlines are largely unprotected against higher jet fuel prices from April 2027. Many European carriers, Ryanair among them, had strong hedging positions through 2026, but their cover is much thinner after that. Ryanair locked in fuel at about $67 a barrel this year, yet he said "our oil price will double" next year. The company is 85% unhedged for 2027, and most other European airlines are in a similar position.

Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show jet fuel in Europe and the CIS averaged $207.61 a barrel in the week ending 16 October, almost 128% higher than a year earlier. Crude and refined product prices jumped after the Iran war began and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, traded at $109.86 on Wednesday, close to a five-month high.

O'Leary added that fewer seats will be available in 2027 because of bankruptcies and takeovers in the European aviation market.

Cuts in Belgium

Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on 20 October, O'Leary announced a major reduction of Ryanair's Belgian operations. Belgium's aviation tax is due to rise from €2 to €7 in January 2027. Ryanair is dropping 20 routes and 1.1 million seats from its Belgian winter schedule, blaming the tax increase. The airline said it would move six aircraft to lower-cost European markets.