Kremlin propaganda about the Baltics: weak and dangerous at the same time
Russian propaganda portrays the Baltic states as both weak and dangerous, using contradictory narratives amplified by recent security incidents and public fear.
In Russian propaganda, the Baltics exist in two realities: one as a small, dependent, and "extinct" territory with a crumbling economy and russophobia, the other as a dangerous NATO outpost threatening Russia. This contradiction is not a mistake but a deliberate method—propaganda needs emotions, not logical consistency: fear, anger, resentment.
Recent months have provided a new backdrop: drone incidents, air raid alerts, power outages, and political tension. Real events are woven into conspiracy theories, and propaganda offers a ready explanation—the Baltics provoke, NATO uses them, Russia only warns.
These issues were analyzed in LETA’s podcast “Kas tas vispār bija?!” segment “Aiz priekškara”, featuring journalists and researchers. Deputy director of the Centre for East European Policy Studies Elīna Rubļevska noted that the Baltics serve as a special NATO symbol in Kremlin narratives—the closest point for criticizing the alliance. Disinformation researcher Mārtiņš Hiršs explained that Russia needs to justify its regime by telling stories about russophobia and “defending” Russian speakers.
One of the most persistent narratives is the oppression of Russian speakers in the Baltics. Rubļevska emphasized that it “has not disappeared” and is activated opportunistically, for example, regarding residency issues of Russian citizens. On social media, these stories work especially well when personalized—a specific person with a name and surname leaves a stronger impression than legal norms.
Propaganda latches onto existing pain points. Hiršs reminded that people who feel marginalized or have poor economic conditions are more susceptible. Therefore, countering disinformation cannot be limited to fact-checking—trust and social issues must also be addressed.
Rubļevska added that dry truth alone is not enough because modern propaganda uses real facts, twisting them. It requires an emotional response. Moreover, Kremlin messages are migrating to new platforms—YouTube, Telegram, social media—and are adapted to different audiences, including Latvian speakers.
Drone incidents are a vivid example of how a real security problem is exploited in propaganda. Social media maps supposedly show Ukrainian drones flying through the Baltics, raising doubts about Latvia’s support for Ukraine. Such stories affect a broader audience and require explanations that go beyond facts to include an emotional approach.
